BTC is currently trading around $19,500 and ETH around $1,450. LINK is the only notable gainer in the last 24 hours. The global crypto market cap is ~$1.01T, down ~5.5% over the last day. DeFi Total Value Locked is ~$52b and BTC dominance is around 40%.
Global equities are moving higher, while crypto is diverging downward behind Alameda and FTX contagion concerns (detailed below). US midterm elections are in focus today as the polls close this evening. Five Thirty Eight’s model indicates a Republican sweep is the most likely outcome (~57%), but a split congress w/ Democrats controlling the Senate (~27%) and a Democrat sweep (~15%) are both still on the table. Elsewhere in politics, former President Trump is making a “big announcement” next Tuesday where he’s widely expected to announce his 2024 presidential campaign.
Focusing on crypto, the solvency concerns around FTX and Alameda command the most attention. FTT dropped sharply below $22 last night, the price at which Alameda offered to lift Binance out of their FTT position. Some investors speculated that Alameda has leveraged exposure backed by FTT that necessitated them defending the $22 price level. The downward move sparked some broader market contagion, with Solana falling sharply as it appears Alameda utilized their large Solana balance to defend FTT. The Magic Internet Money (MIM) stablecoin also depegged as fears spread around loans backed by FTT. The founder of the two firms, Sam Bankman-Fried, has been uncharacteristically silent over the past ~24 hours, and FTX has seemingly stopped processing withdrawals. ETH sitting on exchanges has nearly fallen to a six-month low as investors take custody of their assets during the uncertain backdrop.
Notable news includes: The US DOJ seized more than 50,000 BTC stolen from the dark web marketplace Silk Road in 2012, the recovery was the second largest crypto seizure in history; VC behemoth Paradigm launched its Crypto Policy Council featuring former Congressmen Paul Ryan and Steve Israel, among other political figures; the gala token exploit reportedly was caused by a leaked private key on GitHub; the Avalanche Foundation unveiled a $4m incentive program for trading platform GMX; Bitcoin mining difficulty had a modest ~0.2% downward adjustment; the Bank of Korea completed a 10-month long experiment on CBDCs; Gemini expanded to five more European countries; BitMEX revealed it would launch trading of its BMEX token on Friday; and, European crypto venture firm LeadBlock completed the first close of its new fund targeting $150m.
Authors:
Matt Kunke, Junior Strategist | Twitter, Telegram, LinkedIn
Brian Rudick, Senior Strategist | Telegram, LinkedIn
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