Daily Market Update: October 6, 2023

October 6, 2023

BTC is currently trading around $27,700 and ETH around $1,650. Notable gainers in the last 24 hours are TKX, AVAX, and TON. The global crypto market cap is ~$1.13T, down 0.8% over the last day. DeFi Total Value Locked is ~$38b and BTC dominance is around 51%.

Risk assets waned after nonfarm payrolls came in severely hotter than expected this morning and repudiated the weak ADP jobs reading from Wednesday. Jobs grew by 336k during September, nearly doubling the 170k expected. Unemployment and average hourly earnings showed relative weakness, with lower earnings and higher unemployment compared to consensus, but these datapoints were overwhelmed by the largest headline jobs increase since January. Equity and crypto markets fell in response, while the US 10Y yield gapped ~13 bps higher to ~4.85%. The market-implied probability of a Fed hike before year-end similarly ratcheted higher, and markets now price a ~45% chance of a higher Fed Funds rate by the December meeting. This compares to a ~33% chance as of yesterday.

Notable news includes: a new BIS plan would mandate banks to disclose their crypto holdings; Hong Kong officials reiterated that retail investors are forbidden from trading stablecoins until they become regulated towards the end of 2024; Binance’s spot market share dropped for the seventh consecutive month; Kraken revealed plans to acquire BCM, a regulated crypto broker in the Netherlands; Ledger announced a ~12% staff reduction; RUNE plummeted ~9% as THORSwap froze operations amid “potential illicit activity”; Burnt announced the launch of Xion, the first L1 chain to use USDC as the network’s gas token; El Salvador announced the launch of Lava Pool, the country’s first Bitcoin mining pool powered entirely by geothermal energy; the Blackbird crypto app targeting restaurant goers raised $24m from a16z; Yuga Labs invested in a spatial computing startup to help power its Otherside metaverse; a new image leak of Block’s bitcoin wallet suggest the beta version is nearly ready to ship; and, Elliptic reported that ~$7b of “illicit or high-risk funds” have now been laundered through DEXs, cross-chain bridges, and non-KYC exchanges in aggregate.

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Matt Kunke, Research Analyst | TwitterTelegramLinkedIn
Brian Rudick, Senior Strategist | TwitterTelegramLinkedIn

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