Trading Desk Market Update: 6/13

June 13, 2022

BTC is currently trading around $23,700 and ETH around $1,250. There are no notable gainers in the last 24 hours. The global crypto market cap is $1.01T, down 12.2% over the last day. DeFi Total Value Locked is ~$84b and BTC dominance is around 48%.

Global risk markets are down sharply as investors are pricing in larger Fed rate hikes in the months ahead. Some banks are even speculating a 75 basis point hike may be on the table in this week’s upcoming Fed meeting. The 2y10y yield curve is approaching a commonly cited recession indicator as it nearly inverted this morning as the rise in 2y yields have outpaced the 10y yield under the backdrop of increased monetary tightening. Global equity markets are down between 1.5% and 3%, crypto is down ~12.2%, the 10y yield has risen 12 bps to 3.28%, and the VIX breached 33. Over $500m of crypto was liquidated on Sunday as BTC and ETH fell to their lowest levels in the last 18 months and 14 months, respectively. The crypto selloff was exacerbated last night as credence was added to Celsius’ rumored liquidity crunch as the firm announced it is pausing withdrawals on its platform. It’s a back-loaded week from a data perspective with an FOMC statement and Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, a BoE interest rate decision on Thursday, as well as Eurozone CPI and a speech from Fed Chair Powell on Friday. 

Other notable news includes: EU officials are optimistic about resolving the details of the MiCA regulatory package by end of month; Coin Center sued the Treasury and IRS claiming the tax-reporting requirement in the infrastructure bill is unconstitutional; France’s financial regulatory authority toughened its criteria for authorizing digital asset service providers; the Swedish central bank argued that PoW cryptocurrency mining should be banned; Ethereum core developers delayed the difficulty bomb for two more months; Celsius ‘paused’ customer withdrawals, swaps, and transfers; Nexo proposed a buyout of Celsius after it paused customer withdrawals; Lido’s staked ETH has fallen to a 6.5% discount versus ETH; the Optimism exploiter has returned 90% of the stolen OP tokens to Wintermute; Helium revealed plans to expand beyond 5G and IoT connectivity, launching new tokens for each distinct network; BlockFi hired lobbyists to streamline talks with policymakers; Stellar partnered with Moneygram to launch a new global crypto-to-fiat protocol leveraging USDC; Goldman Sachs traded its first Ethereum non-deliverable forward; American Express revealed plans to launch a new crypto rewards credit card; Huobi unveiled its new DeFi and web3 investment arm called Ivy Blocks; TRON’s USDD stablecoin fell to $0.97 but the Tron DAO Reserve added $700m USDC to defend the peg; Justin Sun further tweeted that the Tron DAO Reserve would deploy $2b to defend the USDD peg; Jack Dorsey unveiled web5 which he refered to as a new version of the internet built on Bitcoin without the involvement of other tokens; and, Do Kwon denied allegations of withdrawing $2.7b from the Terra ecosystem. 

This material is a product of the GSR Sales and Trading Department. It is not a product of a Research Department, not a research report, and not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to research reports prepared pursuant to FINRA or CFTC research rules. This material is not independent of the Firm’s proprietary interests, which may conflict with your interests. The Firm trades instruments discussed in this material for its own account. The author may have consulted with the Firm’s traders and other personnel, who may have already traded based on the views expressed in this material, may trade contrary to the views expressed in this material, and may have positions in other instruments discussed herein. This material is intended only for institutional investors. Solely for purposes of the CFTC’s rules and to the extent this material discusses derivatives, this material is a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction and should not be considered to be a derivatives research report.This material is provided solely for informational purposes, is intended for your use only and does not constitute an offer or commitment, a solicitation of an offer or comment (except as noted for CFTC purposes), or any advice or recommendation, to enter into or conclude any transaction (whether on the indicative terms shown or otherwise), or to provide investment services in any state or country where such an offer or solicitation or provision would be illegal. Information is based on sources considered to be reliable, but not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates expressed herein reflect a judgment made as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice. Trading and investing in digital assets involves significant risks including price volatility and illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. GSR will not be liable whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this Information. Copyright of this Information belongs to GSR. Neither this Information nor any copy thereof may be taken or rented or redistributed, directly or indirectly, without prior written permission of GSR. Not a solicitation to U.S. Entities or individuals for securities in any form. If you are such an entity, you must close this page.